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ЭЛЕКТРОННОЕ НАУЧНОЕ ИЗДАНИЕ
АЛЬМАНАХ ПРОСТРАНСТВО И ВРЕМЯ
[Elektronnoe nauchnoe izdanie Al'manakh Prostranstvo i Vremya]

Electronic Scientific Edition
Almanac Space and Time
[e-Almanac Space and Time]

Часть издательского проекта “Пространство и Время” 
The part of the "Space and Time" Рublishing Рroject
 
 АЛЬМАНАХ В СОЦИАЛЬНЫХ СЕТЯХ 

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УСПЕХИ МОЛОДЫХ ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЕЙ:
МОЛОДЁЖНЫЙ ПРОЕКТ ДЛЯ ТЕХ, КТО ДЕЛАЕТ ПЕРВЫЕ ШАГИ В НАУКЕ

ПРЕСС-РЕЛИЗ совместного проектаФилософского факультета МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова,Московского общества испытателей природы при МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова,Федерального государственного бюджетного научного учреждения«Институт стратегии развития образования Российской академии образования»и «Электронного научного издания Альманах Пространство и Время»в рамках подготовки и проведенияXIX Всемирного фестиваля молодежи и студентов в РоссииФедерального государственного бюджетного научного учреждения  «Институт стратегии развития образования Российской академии образования», Российского университета дружбы народов, Московского общества испытателей природы при МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова и «Электронного научного издания Альманах Пространство и Время»  в рамках подготовки и проведения  XIX Всемирного фестиваля молодежи и студентов в России
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Каспийский Диалог 2016



ЧЕЛОВЕК И СРЕДА ОБИТАНИЯ / MAN AND LIVING ENVIRONMENT / MENSCH UND LEBENSRAUM

»   2018. Том 16. Выпуск 1-2

DOI 10.24411/2227-9490-2018-11071

Гатинский Ю.Г., Прохорова Т.В., Рундквист Д.В., Соловьёв А.А. 
Современные тектонические движения и землетрясения в северной части Каспийского горнопромышленного региона

Гатинский Юрий Георгиевич, доктор геолого-минералогических наук, старший научный сотрудник, главный научный сотрудник Государственного геологического музея им. В.И.Вернадского РАН
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7225-7073
E-mail: yury-g-gatinsky@j-spacetime.com; yug@sgm.ru, gatinsky@gmail.com

Прохорова Татьяна Викторовна, научный сотрудник Института теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики РАН
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8829-2081
E-mail: tatiana-v-prokhorova@j-spacetime.com; tatprokh@mitp.ru

Рундквист Дмитрий Васильевич, доктор геолого-минералогических наук, академик РАН, главный научный сотрудник Государственного геологического музея им. В.И.Вернадского РАН
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8428-5936
E-mail: dmitry-v-rundquist@j-spacetime.com; dvr@sgm.ru

Соловьёв Александр Анатольевич, доктор физико-математических наук, член-корреспондент РАН, директор Института теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики РАН
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9359-2775
E-mail: alexander-a-soloviev@j-spacetime.com; soloviev@mitp.ru


В пределах региона, расположенного на ЮЗ Северо-Евразийской литосферной плиты и в прилегающей части Альпийско-Иранской транзитной зоны, выделены три района: (1)юг Волгоградской области, восток Ставропольского края, Астраханская обл., Республика Калмыкия, север Республики Дагестан, (2) юг Ставропольского края, республики Кабардино-Балкарская, Северная Осетия, Ингушетия, Чеченская, Калмыкия и (3) Дагестан РФ, Южная Осетия, Восточная Грузия и Западный Казахстан. Максимальная сейсмичность с магнитудами землетрясений до 4,0—7,3 и широкое развитие активных разломов приурочены к району (2). Приведены данные о 110 горно-обогатительных и добывающих предприятий в рассмотренных районах с краткой характеристикой их специализации.

Ключевые слова: Каспийский горнопромышленный регион; сейсмическая активность; тектоническая подвижность; землетрясения; зоны возникновения очагов землетрясений; сейсмическая энергия; тепловой поток; безопасность промышленных объектов.

Цитирование по ГОСТ Р 7.0.11—2011:

Гатинский, Ю. Г., Прохорова, Т. В., Рундквист, Д. В., Соловьёв, А. А. Современные тектонические движения и землетрясения в северной части Каспийского горнопромышленного региона [Электронный ресурс] / Ю.Г. Гатинский, Т.В. Прохорова, Д.В. Рундквист, А.А. Соловьёв // Электронное научное издание Альманах Пространство и Время. — 2018. — Т. 16. — Вып. 1—2. — Стационарный сетевой адрес: 2227-9490e-aprovr_e-ast16-1_2.2018.71. DOI 10.24411/2227-9490-2018-11071.




DOI 10.24411/2227-9490-2018-11071

Gatinsky Yu.G., Prokhorova T.V., Rundquist D.V., Soloviev A.AUp-to-date Tectonic Movements and Earthquakes in the Northern Part of the Caspian Mining Region

Yury G. Gatinsky, D.Sc. (Geology and Mineralogy), RAS Vernadsky State Geological Museum (Moscow), Main Scientific Researcher
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7225-7073
E-mail: yury-g-gatinsky@j-spacetime.com; yug@sgm.ru, gatinsky@gmail.com

Tatiana V. Prokhorova, M.Sc., RAS Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (Moscow), Scientific Researcher
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8829-2081
E-mail: tatiana-v-prokhorova@j-spacetime.com; tatprokh@mitp.ru

Dmitry V. Rundquist, D.Sc. (Geology and Mineralogy), Professor, Academician of Russian Academy of Science, RAS Vernadsky State Geological Museum (Moscow), Main Scientific Researcher
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8428-5936
E-mail: dmitry-v-rundquist@j-spacetime.com; dvr@sgm.ru

Alexander A. Soloviev, D.Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of RAS Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (Moscow)
ORCID ID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9359-2775
E-mail: alexander-a-soloviev@j-spacetime.com; soloviev@mitp.ru


Most of the Caspian mining region includes the east of the Stavropol Territory, Volgograd and Astrakhan Regions, Russian republics of Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechenia, Kalmykia and Dagestan, as well as South Ossetia, Eastern Georgia and Western Kazakhstan. Also in immediate proximity to this region there are operating Rostov and Yerevan NPPs, and unfinished Aktau NPP on the Mangyshlak Peninsula in Western Kazakhstan. So, Northern part of Caspian mining region is characterized by high population density, developed infrastructure and communication means. There are large developed deposits of minerals, including oil and gas, offshore platforms at shelf zones of the Caspian Sea, as well as active and planned nuclear power plants and large hydro and thermal power plants. This makes studies in assessment and ways of reducing the consequences of modern tectonic movements and earthquakes in this areal especially relevant.

We carried out study within the framework of the 18th Program of the RAS Presidium "Natural Disasters and Adaptation Processes under Changing Climate and Nuclear Energy Development", started in 2015 under the supervision of the Academician N.P. Laverov; so, we represent here our result for 2015—2017. We pursued our researches of geodynamics and seismicity within three mining areas of the northern part of Caspian mining region: (i) South of the Volgograd Region, East of the Stavropol Territory, the Astrakhan Region, the Republic of Kalmykia, and North of the Republic of Dagestan, (ii) South of the Stavropol Territory, the Republics of Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechenia, Kalmykia and Dagestan, as well as South Ossetia and Eastern Georgia, (iii) Western Kazakhstan and the adjacent territory of Western Uzbekistan.

We carried out our study by the detail analysis of geological materials and space images within regions taking into account space-geodetic data (vectors of horizontal and vertical displacements in the ITRF system, http://itrf.ensg.ign.fr/2014) and model vectors for a relatively stable Eurasia in the system NNR_NUVEL_1A 2008), velocities and gradients of the latest and modern movements of the Earth's crust, parameters possible shifts. For each areal, we have constructed schemes showing the location of active faults relative to the location of mining enterprises, power plants and large mineral deposits, as well as of epicenters according to NEIC 2017 (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/neic/) and CMT 2017 (http://www.seismology.harvard.edu/) with magnitude (M) from 4.0 to 7.9 and the distribution area of the volume of released seismic energy according to our calculations. We built our schemes in the ArcGIS system on the basis of the Electronic Geodynamic Globe (http://earth.jscc.ru), developed under the guidance of D.V. Rundquist and Yu.G. Gatinsky. The source for systematization of data on mining and processing enterprises and mining ones for Russian Federation and near abroad countries was the “Interior of Russia” GIS-Atlas (http://atlaspacket.vsegei.ru) and the websites "Oilmen of the Russian Federation" (http://www.nftn.ru/ oilfields) and “Russian Federal Geological Foundation” (http://www.rfgf.ru/). In the course of our work, we prepared the map of two deep seismic sections and seismic energy dissipation diagrams through the seismically active zones of the Eastern Caucasus, and also identified seismic areas in the most seismically active area (includes South of the Stavropol Territory and Republics of Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechenia, Kalmykia and Dagestan, as well as South Ossetia and Eastern Georgia) with the mapping of zones of earthquake foci origin (EFO). We calculated volumes of releasing seismic energy and pinpointed their values on the each scheme; we also compiled the table for 110 mining objects of investigated regions, which we give at the end of our paper.

For the first region, the volumes of released seismic energy, according to our calculations, increase from north to south from 10**-7 J to 10**3 J, and in the local seismic structure to the north-north-east from Astrakhan to 10**-2 J. At the edges of this structure, clusters of epicenters with M 4.7-6.0 are observed, while only a few isolated epicenters with M 5.0-5.9 are established on the rest of the area. We assume that the slightly increased seismicity at the border of the Astrakhan region and Kazakhstan is partially associated with missile launches from the north-west of the Kapustin Yar space port. The values of the heat flux (HF) in the northern part of the region are 40-63 mW/m2, increasing to 79-94 mW/m2 south of the Dnieper-Donets aulacogen, which can explain, in addition to approaching the southern boundary of the plate, also a sharp decrease in crustal thickness and increased tectonic activity within the aulacogen. The largest HF values are up to 106-111 mW/m2 and are installed in the south-west near Stavropol. Thus, area (i) is characterized by relatively insignificant modern tectonic activity with a low level of seismicity. Most of the enterprises of this region are in zone of low natural risk, although the environmental situation there is a certain concern due to seasonal exogenous processes, primarily large floods in the basins of the middle reaches of the Don, the upper Kuban, as well as drought and dust storms in the Astrakhan Region and Kalmykia.

For the second region, most of the epicenters coincide with the active faults at the block boundaries, where the seismic level increases to 10**11-10**13 J. According to mechanisms in the hypocenters (SMT 2017), faults and large north-west striking shifts developed in the northern and southern foothills of the Greater Caucasus, to a lesser extent in the Lesser Caucasus. Crosswise northeastern left-sided shifts are established within the Lesser Caucasus. Stretches are noted in the South Caspian deep basin and in the east of the Kura depression in Azerbaijan. The HF values for this area are 63-84 mW/m2 at the southern boundary of the North Eurasian plate in the Stavropol Territory and Dagestan. The maximum values up to 88-97 mW/m2 are noted to the south of the region in the south-western part of the South Caspian deep-water basin and in the Alborz Ridge in Iran. In Georgia, a small number of HF measurements show 28-59 mW/m2, and in Azerbaijan it is of 22-96 mW/m2 (maximum in the Kura Basin), in Armenia HF varies from 32 to 92-140 (maximum at Lake Sevan and north-west of it, along the Sevan Zone faults). The degree of individual natural risk in the Stavropol Territory varies from 0.1-1 to 2-5, and it is 1-10 in the south of Kalmykia and in the north of Dagestan, sharply increasing to the south to 30-100 (the extreme risk values for south of Dagestan rise to 100-150). Along the northern slope and the axial part of the Caucasian Ridge, some small areas with a risk > 150 are developed, especially in the south of Dagestan and in the south-east of the Chechen Republic. Analysis of the current state and our earlier studies (in 2011 and 2014) show that mining enterprises in the southern part of the Ciscaucasia and the Transcaucasian republics located in high seismic interblock zones and zones delimiting the blocks and the North Eurasian lithospheric plate are the most at risk in the area under consideration. For existing and planned NPPs, HPPs and TPPs, careful monitoring of the level of seismic activity and observance of protective measures in the construction of power facilities are necessary. The nuclear power plants in the region of Yerevan and hydroelectric power stations in the west of Georgia, Armenia and Dagestan are most at risk.

The zone of active north-western faults of the third area extends from the lower reaches of the Amu-Darya to the Mangyshlak Peninsula, crossing further the Caspian Sea. The level of seismicity in most of the region does not exceed 10**-4¸10**-7 J; they increase only in the extreme SW up to 10**9 J. in the northern part of the area (iii), HF is within 16-67 mW/m2, but it increase to 69-89 in SE near the remains Aral Sea in Uzbekistan. Most of the enterprises of this area are located in zones of weak seismicity (no more than 1х10**-6¸1х10**-5 J). We do not have official estimates of the degree of natural risk in the Central Asian countries. In the neighboring territory of the Russian Federation in the Orenburg region, the level of this risk is 2-5. On the territory of the mining area of Western Kazakhstan is the unfinished Aktau NPP. In case of its introduction into action, it is necessary to provide for protective measures, first of all, for oil and gas producing facilities on the Mangyshlak Peninsula.

Our conclusions are about EFO zones in northern part of the Caspian mining region and recommendations for enterprises protecting there. They are as follows:

(a) settlements and mining enterprises location in the identified areas of active modern geodynamic processes in the south of the Stavropol Territory, in Dagestan and other Ciscaucasian republics, as well as in Eastern Georgia, necessitates permanent monitoring of seismic intensity, tracing of movements along active faults by repeated instrumental measurements. It is also necessary to identify changes in the time of GPS vectors and increase the density of the network of geophysical observations to reach the level available in the US and developed European countries;

(b) when designing new enterprises, nuclear power plants and other power plants, it is expedient to avoid interblock zones, to which, as a rule, maximum seismic activity is confined (we considered the methodology for their isolation in a number of our publications of  2009, 2011, 2014, and 2015);

(c) detailed joint analysis of the geodynamics and geophysics of the seismically active zones of the Ciscaucasia, the Northeast Caucasus, the adjacent areas of Transcaucasia and Western Kazakhstan, with the information processing of the data obtained in ArcGIS, can significantly reduce the risk for the economy and people's life associated with seismogenic natural disasters, including for strategically important energy and mining facilities in such zones.

Keywords: Caspian mining region; seismic activity; tectonic mobility; earthquake; zones of origin of earthquake foci; seismic energy; heat flow; safety of industrial plants.

Cite MLA 7:

Gatinsky, Yu. G., T. V. Prokhorova, D. V. Rundquist, and A. A. Soloviev "Up-to-date Tectonic Movements and Earthquakes in the Northern Part of the Caspian Mining Region." Electronic Scientific Edition Almanac Space and Time  16.1—2 (2018). Web. <2227-9490e-aprovr_e-ast16-1_2.2018.71>. DOI 10.24411/2227-9490-2018-11071. (In Russian).

Список литературы / References